Thursday, November 1, 2007

Potential SPX Overshoot

The most recent article "Lower Volume Trading Range" showed SPX held the cyclical bull market low, intermediate-term technical indicators may have bottomed, and an SPX 1,246 to 1,290 range may take place in July. However, the possibility of a rise above 1,290 should be taken into account.

The two charts below show daily SPX (right scales and candlesticks) and daily NYSE Oscillator (NYMO; left scales and green lines) in 2004 and currently with SPX 50 and 200-day MAs. NYMO closed above 72 on Monday, which is the highest level since early-June 2004.

The first chart shows SPX topped in March 2004 at 1,163 and began a volatile downtrend. The second chart shows SPX topped in May 2006 at 1,326 and also began a downtrend. The gray arrow in the 2004 chart may indicate SPX movements over the next month. The first two weeks of July tend to be bullish. So, it's possible, SPX may rally into earnings season, stay high, and sell on the FOMC anouncement August 8th. A short-squeeze may be triggered above 1,290 with upside potential to around 1,310.

However, there are major differences between the 2004 and current charts. When the 2004 NYMO rose above 80, it began below negative 100 (both the high and low were historical extremes), while the current rise began slightly below negative 50. Also, SPX rose above the 50-day MA on the first bounce after the top in 2004. However, SPX failed to reach the 50-day MA on the first bounce after the top in 2006.

Over the 2004 downtrend, SPX made lower highs. So, 1,290 continues to be major resistance, and the 1,246 to 1,290 range may take place in July. Nonetheless, a sharp rise above 1,290 should be taken into account. Also, the charts indicate SPX will be much lower within three months, and SPX may bottom in October or sooner, perhaps below 1,200.

Free charts available at Forum Index Market Forecast category.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.

How to Choose a Low Spread Forex Trading Platform

When you start your Forex trading you will find that the Forex brokers - online or conventional, do not ask for a commission for their service. But of course, they do not perform their operations for free. They make money by charging a spread from the investor. It is therefore very important to find out a low spread Forex trading platform.

The spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price for the currency being traded. The broker adds this spread onto the price of the trade and keeps it as their fee for trading. So you can consider this as a hidden commission.

One good thing about the spread is you pay it when you buy and not when you sell. A trading of 4 pips vs. 5 pips makes a difference of 25% on your trading costs! This makes the point clear why you would need a low spread Forex trading platform.

The popular currency pairs like the EUR/USD or GBP/USD typically have the lowest spreads. Some brokers offer different spreads for different types of accounts. A low spread Forex trading platform may not offer good mini trading and may have higher spreads than a full contract account. Obviously the smaller the spread on currency pairs the better the conditions for you as investor and trader.

You will find many online sites offering different platforms for Forex trading. Through these platforms you can actually buy or sell the Forex. You will have to identify a low spread Forex trading platform from them.

A good Forex trading platform shows live prices that you can actually trade at, and not indicative quotes. The low spread Forex trading platform should be fair and should let you know the actual prices so that you can have an idea of the spread.

While choosing the low spread Forex trading platform you wish to trade from the factors you should consider are:

Platform execution This refers to how fast and consistent the execution of trades are.

Fractional trading The low spread Forex trading platform allows the investors and traders to trade on a fractional basis. Instead of full lots 100,000 units or 300,000 units, it allows you to trade 163,345 units or 325,911 units. This is very helpful for traders risking certain percentage of their balance on each trade.

User friendly The trading platform should be easy to use and understand. It should be reliable during fast moving markets. The platform should offer services like one click buying or selling, trading directly from a chart, supports mobile devices, trailing stops, etc.

Minimum investment The Forex trading platform should offer minimum amount of money to open a trading account.

To find out which Forex brokers offer the lowest spreads and the best trading software please visit our Forex Reviews and Advice website

E-currency Trading - An Alternative to Futures & Forex Trading

I find it amazing that nearly everyday I receive something online or offline that is the greatest break-through in Trading. You know the stuff. This system or that method has been thoroughly tested and back-tested in every conceivable fashion and is wildly successful. Some work for a period of time but most do not. The decades old statistical fact still remains, 90+% of Futures Traders will lose all of their trading capital within their first year of trading. Now there is a new and promising alternative.

Enter e-Currency Trading. In simple terms e-currency is Internet Money. E-Currency allows the purchase of Internet goods and services at lightning speed and most importantly with a high level of security. Much higher than credit cards, bank transfer etc. The demand for e-currency should only grow as Internet Commerce grows.

So what does this have to do with trading? There are literally hundreds of different e-currencies. Each is backed by an underlying Currency or a precious metal. The need arises to exchange between these e-currencies or convert an e-currency to hard cash. Much like the Euro is to the European Union. We can profit from the exchanging process and profit from the fluctuation of the underlying currency value.

The same basic strategies apply to e-currency trading as with futures trading. Supply and demand dictates price primarily. You could buy e-currency that has historically performed well (buying the trend) or go the opposite way and buy those that are under-performing, looking for a turn-around. You can even chart them if you like.

Leverage, that double-edged sword that Futures Traders are so familiar with is also present in e-Currency Trading. You can borrow against your portfolio to buy more e-currency. The compounding affect is almost outrageous. Some would argue that you never have to pay back the leverage. I contend that it is paid back if you closed your e-Currency account, because your final balance would be less the amount leveraged. The point here is the leverage in futures trading is often times the demise of a well intended trader versus the leverage afforded an e-currency trader combined with the daily compounding affect creates portfolio growth at a phenomenal rate. It is not uncommon to see portfolio growth of 20 40% per month.

Futures Trading and e-Currency Trading have a common downside. The learning curve is huge and can be frustrating and costly. Each has unique terminology, which is impossible to work around until you have a good understanding of the meaning. Thankfully in this world of information, we are able to find resources online and offline that shorten that curve. How much it is shortened is dependent on how much time you want to dedicate.

Industry experts have debated for years the optimum amount one should fund their futures trading account with. The obvious moving target is enough capital to withstand the drawdown periods. Many factors go into this but Ive seen numbers range anywhere from $10,000 to $50,000 and up. If this is the case then there is little doubt why most futures traders lose as most are willing to fund only the amount required to cover Margin or the Brokers account minimum usually a few thousand dollars. One of the biggest reasons for small business failure is being under capitalized, the same holds true in futures trading.

E-Currency Trading is different in that the experts recommend starting with a few hundred dollars and let the system build your account. Whatever route you choose, only trade with risk capital.

E-Currency Trading certainly has advantages over traditional futures trading and may well be worth your serious consideration.

Merv Thompson is the owner of a website that provides trading tools, resourses and reviews for todays futures trader.

Merv has started his own personal e-currency trading account and will periodically post updates - Visit the website to view the results

Additional information about e-currency trading can be found on his website at

9 Tips For Becoming a Profitable Forex Trader

Regardless of your trading style; day trading, swing trading, or position trading there is a simple step by step plan you can use to improve your odds for success.

1. Start by paper trading until you can be consistently profitable on paper. I would also recommend doing a lot of practice trading with a real-time demo account. This is the next best thing to real trading without risking money.

2. Regardless of how much money you have, start trading with a small amount of money and work up over time. You need to make all your mistakes with the smallest amount of money. Trust me, it will be a lot less painful!

3. If you are a day trader, avoid the very small time-frames like 1 or 2 minute as you get a lot of signals which can lead to over trading. These fast time-frames are full of market noise and insignificant price activity.

4. Make sure that all your entry criteria are met for the trade setup. Don't jump the gun until everything is in place.

5. If there are no clear signals in the market, then do nothing. Forcing trades almost always ends up with losses.

6. Always place your protective stop immediately after entering the trade!

7. In your studies you will be exposed to many techniques. You will improve your results by concentrating on only one or two strategies. Get real good and consistently profitable with them first.

8. Don't watch too many currencies at one time. This leads to too much confusion and indecision about which trade to take. I wouls stick to two or three of the major currency pairs.

9. Win, lose or draw dont deviate from your strategies or change things.

These 9 points may seem very simple, but they are actually very hard to carry out as they require a lot of focus and discipline. Stick to them and you will trade better than the majority of forex traders out there.

Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 16 years of experience is a trading coach to over 3500 traders in 63 countries. His new blog offers free trading articles, tips and advice. He also teaches a variety of courses found at and