Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Forex Trading Tips

Forex trading has the highest volatility of any investment market in todays global marketplace. Forex has a volatility of 500. Liquid stocks volatility is from 60 to 100. Smart investors are currently jumping into the forex market at record numbers.

With access to a computer, an investor can go online anywhere in the world 24 hours a day, except for the weekends. A Forex investor is in control of his account. With the right strategy and attention to world events, a Forex investor can reap substantial profits with his investment.

Although an investor can enter the Forex market with very little capital outlay, he should keep in mind that, with the volatility of the currency market and the economic and political turmoil around the world, Forex trading is not risk free.

A Forex investor must be able to analyze the news, not just listen to it, and after analyzing the news, an investor should use proven strategies when buying or selling. An investor should never make and investment decision based on fear or greed. He should consult reputable charts and graphs and known and proven market indicators before making a decision. A Forex investor should familiarize himself with the big players and political figures that influence the market. Learn personalities and listen to fellow Forex investors. Because Forex traders all trade in currencies, there is no threat of insider trading. Every Forex investor is an insider. With the right strategy and insight into what moves the market, a Forex trader can be very successful.

Milos Pesic is an expert in the field of Forex Trading and runs a highly popular and comprehensive Forex Trading web site. For more articles and resources on Forex related topics, online forex trading, trading tips, forex software and much more visit his site at:


Sprott Analyst Has Zero Doubt on Higher Natural Gas Prices

Introduction: We talked with Sprott Asset Management Research Analyst Eric Nuttall about the natural gas situation in Canada and the fate of many CBM gas producers and developers. Since our last conversation spot natural gas prices have dropped by 15 percent. Natural gas storage levels are about 2.5 trillion cubic feet, some 423 billion cubic feet higher than a year ago.

Eric Nuttall told us, Nearly all small-cap natural gas producers have taken it in the teeth this year. The price decreases in their stocks have been absolutely brutal. There are now companies whose stocks are down 40 percent year-to-date, and yet are still strongly growing production on an adjusted share basis. How will the CBM and natural gas sector pan out through the end of this year? He believes the gas storage surplus will correct itself.

StockInterview: How are the lower natural gas prices impacting Coalbed Methane producers?

Eric Nuttall: For many CBM or shallow gas producers, this means their current drilling program is likely uneconomic, suggesting deferrals in drilling programs until natural gas prices strengthen. It is this very supply response that we need to balance storage levels, so it should not come as a complete surprise.

StockInterview: What, then, should investors do while storage levels are rebalancing?

Eric Nuttall: I would view this period as an opportunity for medium to long-term minded individuals to start building positions in not just unconventional gas producers, but conventional ones as well. The long-term fundamentals are still extremely bullish for natural gas. Many quality names are down 20 to 40 percent year-to-date.

StockInterview: How do you view the long-term fundamentals for gas?

Eric Nuttall: North American natural gas production has been in decline for several years. Most incremental production is coming from smaller, more expensive-to-drill, thinner economic, higher decline pools and reservoirs. Over the past five years first-year decline rates on natural gas wells have doubled to 50 percent. The base decline rate has also doubled to approximately 25 to 30 percent. Pool size has also decreased materially over that time frame. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and much of the US producing basins are mature. Consequently, higher and higher natural gas prices are required to create incentive for producers to drill increasingly marginal wells.

StockInterview: And you expect a continuation of declining natural gas production? And that is that your premise for higher natural gas pricing?

Eric Nuttall: Conventional gas production has been in decline for many years, and the growth areas have largely been unconventional, such as the Piceance Basin (tight gas), the Barnett Shale (shale gas), and the Jonah Field (tight, deep gas). Also, many of the growth assets, such as the Barnett Shale, are already a few years into development, and because the wells have such a steep decline rate in the first few years, it is only adding to the depleting base that we have to make up. It is unlikely that over the next three years, the increase in unconventional gas can offset the decline in conventional, because the depleting base is so much larger. The major natural gas basins in North America are mature. Decline rates are increasing. Pool size is decreasing. Rig count is increasing yet production is at best flat. Until LNG imports increase in a material way, which is not expected for at least four or five more years, I think the case for healthy natural gas prices is intact.

StockInterview: Earlier, you noted drilling was more expensive.

Eric Nuttall: Over the past year, onshore drillings costs are up over 15 percent while operating costs are up over 10 percent. A recent Wall Street Journal article commented on how rig rates for the Gulf of Mexico, on very deep drilling platforms, are as high as $520,000 per day, up from $185,000 a few years ago. And the drilling platforms are still leaving the Gulf of Mexico! Although many are leaving the Gulf of Mexico to go to more prospective areas such as the West African Coast, the current rig situation is still somewhat tight in the Gulf. We have only begun to see signs of moderating rig rate pricing.

StockInterview: How would bad weather, such as a hurricane, impact natural gas prices?

Eric Nuttall: Short term, you would see both natural gas and related stocks surge. If a hurricane strikes the producing area of the Gulf, and we almost need one to to correct the surplus supply situation. Initially, youll have an emotional upward response. Only after assessing the status of production platforms and sub-sea infrastructure would we know the longer-term impact.

StockInterview: Should investors be watching the Weather Channel and ready to phone their stockbrokers?

Eric Nuttall: Timing on any natural gas investment right now is tricky. You need to have a medium- to longer-term focus. We probably have another two months of volatility. There are two camps right now on natural gas. One camp is saying that due to bloated storage levels companies are going to increasingly lay down their drilling rigs, cut production guidance, and stress their balance sheets. Then in the fall, when companies set their 2007 budgets, they will be using low gas prices and presenting moderating production growth profiles to their investors.

StockInterview: What does the other camp say?

Eric Nuttall: Another camp says that the current natural gas strip already discounts the present and forecasted storage levels. Also, stocks are cheap on a price-to-cash flow and price-to-net asset value ratios, and now is the time to load up on the stocks. I lean towards this viewpoint. But I am also admitting that until the fall, barring a severe hurricane, it is likely that the stocks are going to trade sideways, as opposed to in any clear direction.

StockInterview: One equities strategist, whom we interviewed, suggested some time in August we might start to see the natural gas stocks moving higher.

Eric Nuttall: There is the potential that we might endure another month or two of flat trading in small cap natural gas stocks. By the end of August, it is likely that we will have had both a supply and demand response worries of massive laying down of rigs, forced well shut-ins, and overleveraged balance sheets should have subsided. Investors will begin to focus on the natural gas strip rather than spot prices, which currently are around $9.00 for the upcoming winter and $8.00 for next summer.

StockInterview: And until then?

Eric Nuttall: Until that time comes, I think it likely, as a group, the large caps will outperform. They are more weighted towards oil, and have recently been catching a bid on the heel of a huge $22 billion all-cash takeover by Anadarko of Western Gas and Kerr-McGee. Importantly for unconventional gas investors, Anadarko paid around $2.00 for 3P (Possible) Mcf, which is very healthy (Western Gas was predominantly tight gas in Wyoming and coalbed methane in the Powder River Basin). It speaks to Anadarkos view of strong long-term natural gas fundamentals. These all-cash transactions likely set the bottom in the large caps.

StockInterview: What do you see for the near-term?

Eric Nuttall: Many people have been hoping that warm weather or hurricanes would assist in working off the excess supply, but Mother Nature hasnt been terribly helpful so far this summer. It appears that we will exit the natural gas injection season at least 10% over last year. Barring any incredible heat waves or significant hurricanes, natural gas prices are likely to remain sub-$6.50 until the fall. Unless we have a serious hot spell or a significant hurricane, it is likely that natural gas stocks will be very volatile without clear direction over the summer into the fall. I would think not until the fall, probably September October, when people begin to focus not on natural gas spot prices, but on the strip pricing for the winter, which is still over C$10. Until that time comes, I wouldnt see any clear direction in the stocks. The market is now providing opportunities to buy companies with high quality management for below-average multiples, commonly measured on a price-to-cash flow metric.

StockInterview: Have you given up on the CBM sector or is it coming back?

Eric Nuttall: There is zero doubt in my mind that natural gas is an excellent long-term investment. Weve peaked in our ability to increase production meaningfully, just as we have with light oil. I think for there to be an increase in long-term natural gas supply, you have to provide incentive to producers to go drill wells that increasingly have lower economic rates of return. And to do that, you need higher natural gas prices. One of the few remaining growth prospects in Canada for natural gas production is coalbed methane. At current gas prices, the economics are very challenging. So to get a supply response from coalbed methane producers, you again need higher gas prices. The current surplus in gas storage will correct itself, and investors should position themselves ahead of natural gas stocks reacting to this inevitability.

COPYRIGHT 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. StockInterviews Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market has become the most popular book ever published for uranium mining stock investors. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com

Forex Trading - Spotting the Big Trends For Big Profits Part 2

In part 1 we looked at how human psychology pushes prices away from fair value.

When there are extreme moves away from fair value you can make a contrary trade to the majority and pile up big profits with low risk.

So what tools do you need? Lets take a look.

As a general rule these tools will work in any market not just forex markets.

What sets ups do you look for?

Generally you want a set up that is the news where there is no end in sight to a spike move.

This generally indicates that greed and fear have taken hold and the market being looked at is emotionally driven and away from fair value.

This happens all the time:

The recent spike in crude oil, the 87 stock market crash and many others including in the forex market.

First place to start

Is the chart look for huge price spikes in short time spaces accompanied by experts and the news telling you there is no end in sight.

Now delve a bit deeper to see the true picture.

Useful technical tools are:

RSI, Sochastics and Bollinger bands

Then add in these sentiment tools to the mix.

% Bullish

This indictor is a poll of people, experts, brokers etc that have a view or interest in the market.

When this poll indicates above 70% are bullish the market is in overbought territory and when below 30% is in oversold territory.

In the currency markets we like to look for even more extreme readings of below 20% and above 80%

Commitment of Traders Net - Traders Position Report

This is a tool used for years by futures traders and shows the breakdown of open interest among three main participants.

We will explain what it means in a minute buy here is its definition of the groups.

Hedgers The smart money commercial traders

Large speculators These are normally large funds with reportable positions

Small speculators everyone else.

The commercials are long term traders and are close to the fundamentals and move very slowly they are hedging not speculating and not influenced by greed or far and are the smart money.

Speculators on the other hand, both funds and small speculators, are driven by greed and fear

If you see a set up where commercials start to move the opposite way to speculators at a market top or bottom and hold an opposite extreme, then prices have moved to far from fair value.

With the commercials taking and building the opposite position to speculators in a rampant bull or bear market you know prices are probably due to re bound.

You must only use extremes with this tool and this normally means 8 months to 2 years.

Breaking it down

Study chart first, look for experts telling you there is no end in sight to the move, then look at % bullish and then net trader report.

Finally, use the technical indicators to confirm the move.

These moves do not happen often.

Maybe a few times a year.

But when they do

You can zero in on a contrary trade that not only offers huge profit potential but offer low risk.


On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including features, downloads and your essential FREE Trading PDF's visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

Horse Race Betting Guide - Secrets of Professional Punters

So you want to make some money betting on horses? Whether it be thoroughbred, Quarter horse, Harness Racing, or Natural Hunt you want to master 'The Sport of Kings'. At the Kentucky Derby at ChurchHill Downs, the Melbourne Cup in Australia, or the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the UK you'll see the many betting options. Straight Up, Daily Double, Quinella, Exacta, SuperFecta, Trifecta, Boxed bet or Pick Six to name a few. But how do you decide on which horses to place bets on and be 'In the Money'. Here are some factors to consider and tips on placing wagers.

1. Get a copy of the free or online version of the 'Racing Post' or Racing Form
This is an invaluable tool. It is usually found in the leading newspapers focused on horse racing. They will even have copies at the track. Usually only the top tipsters are in this listing. They forecast the winner in a part of the 'Racing Post' called The Selection Box. Look for horses that many forecast as the potential winner. The 'Racing Post is a very good source.

2. Take a Tour of the Paddock
Be at the paddock entrance when the horses arrive. Look at each horse closely and look for positive or negative signs. Things like nerves, scent of liniment, excessive sweating, or foaming or drooling at the mouth are negative and are worth noting. Positive signs are neck bowed, prancing, a focused look, shinny coats and dapples. Watch for any of these signs all the way out to the track.

3. Check the distance of the race
Some horses are better at different distances. Whether it is 5 furlongs or 3 miles you have want to know if a horse will weaken down the stretch or not have enough time to short it's true form. In the racing form you will usually see the last 3 races the horse ran. If it did well in a prior race at a similar distance that is a good sign. If the horse has not raced at today's distance recently you should factor that into your decision and do more analysis.

4. Look at the horse's form
A 'C' means the horse has been a winner over this particular course at sometime in the past. The 'D' means he has been a winner over the distance of today's race is being run. If C or D (or preferably both) appears then this is a strong indication that the horse should be considered.

5. Who is the Jockey for the race?
If you want a strong finish you need a good jockey. Otherwise the horse may not run up to it's potential. In the racing form they will compare the jockeys. Some will be more experienced than others. Check out who will be riding each horse in a racing field, usually there will be some well known names that stick out above the rest.

6. Look at the favorite
Favorites statistically win close to 30-40% of the time. There could be a super favorite. This one may be way above the rest of the horses in that particular race. There also may be several favorites for a particular race. If that happens be very careful with your selection. If you are more advanced you may want to think about a Trifecta or Quinella for that race.

There are ways to lower your risks and make consistent winnings betting on horses. But you need to know the basics and also you need to know the secrets of betting on horses. This will make the difference between 'Getting Lucky' and producing consistent results. Everyone wants to strike a winner and everyone wants to be a Super Punter so use these tips to help you get better results.

Don't be a 'Bridge Jumper'. For the top horse bet racing reviews click here: http://www.HorseRaceBettingGuide.com.

SEO - Are Your Banner Ads Working For You?

Banner ads are going out of style as a pay-per-click way of garnering income. However does this mean that you should discard your banner ads and trade them in for another type of SEO.

There are several ways that tell whether or not your banner ad is worth keeping.

You need to somehow keep track of your page Impressions. This term is the number of times a particular web page has been requested from the server. Advertisers are interested in knowing how many page views they are being offered before they do a banner exchange with you. If you dont have a high rate of page impressions then the banner ad is not doing much for you.

Another thing to do is examine your Click-through rate (CTR). This describes the ratio of page views to clicks. It tells you in the form of a percentage the total number of web visitors who actually clicked on the banner ad. The typical click-through-rate of payment is a measly 1 percent and if you are not even making that then the program is not working for you.

If you are thinking of starting a banner ad click through or pay per click type ad campaign you should make sure that the banner relates to your web content. Otherwise you could confuse both search engine spiders and people looking for you.

It is also a good idea to put banner ads at the top of the page rather than further down. Yet another tip is to link the banner ad to the page on your web page that features the same as it helps raise your rankings in the search engine. The hitch with this and also the reason why trading banners may not be worth your time is that many banner exchanges won't do the trade with you unless you can guarantee that you will place the banner on your home page!

Anthony Gregory is a SEO and Website Marketer. He can be contacted at: Sales (at) Brilliantseo.com


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Self Publishing

Are These Simple Trading Mistakes Costing You Money In The Forex Market?

The 2% rule is a powerful tool in Forex trading. By adopting this rule youre using a strategy that decreases the size of your losses during losing streaks, an important consideration. There is, however one small caveat that you need to be aware of when using the 2% rule to calculate how many Forex shares you are going to buy. As you know, the number of shares you can purchase is determined by your maximum loss and the size of your stop. This means that by increasing your risk, you can also increase the dollar value of the position you open. By simply shrinking your stop size, that is by setting a tighter stop loss, you can increase the dollar value of the position you open.

To avoid a situation where you could end up with excessively large positions that may put your Forex trading float at risk, you can choose to introduce an extra rule. This rule would limit the dollar value of a position to be no more than a set percentage of your entire Forex trading float.

For example, you might decide that youll never open a position that has a dollar value of more than 25% of your entire Forex trading float. This rule would only be executed if, after calculating the formula that determines how many shares you buy, you find the dollar value of that position would greater than 25% of your float. If this happened, you would scale down the position to make sure it did not exceed that 25%.

The percentage that you decide upon will depend on the type of system youre trading, the size of your float, and your personal tolerance for risk. Generally, smaller Forex trading floats might use 25%, and larger Forex trading floats might use as little as 10% or even 5%. There are no definitive numbers, and the percentage that you choose will depend on your personal circumstances.

Once this tendency is corrected for you will have all your money management rules in place, ready to control your risk in the Forex market. Now you need to take the next step. Test your system to find out which of the variables best suit you, remembering always that position sizing is the most significant part of any system design. It is the lynchpin of money management. Once youve tested your system, and fine-tuned your rules, you will be well on your way to becoming a successful Forex trader.

David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it
comes to designing profitable stock trading systems.

Discover the "secret formula" of trading that anyone can use
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Trading the News - Non-Farm Payrolls January 2007

The purpose of this article is to show how a new employment data release (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) is building respect amongst market participants as a factor worth considering, if not a predictive indicator for the widely anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. In the first week of January 2007 we saw how the ADP release had an effect on trader sentiment and expectations prior the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the potential influence this had on price action.

What is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change?
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) provides employment solutions for businesses within but not the entire labour market. The figures they release are directly comparable to the Non-Farm Payrolls report as they both measure the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. However, the ADP data is based on a much smaller sample of the labour market than official figures. The obvious problem with this is that a small sample is not necessarily an accurate representation of the entire labour market. This issue seems to undermine ADPs claims that the indicator has predictive value in regards to official statistics. It should be recognised that the ADP data is a relatively new fixture in the monthly economic calendar; it was first released in May of 2006. As you would imagine it takes traders time to attach any importance to a new report. However, mention of the ADP release is becoming much more frequent in news reports, newsletters and economic summaries as the months pass. In fact news traders (those traders who place trades based on whether data comes out inline, ahead of or worse than analyst expectations) are reporting an increasing amount of activity (buying and selling volume) at data release times as traders begin to attach more importance to the report.

The January Release
In January 2007, the ADP release fell on Wednesday the 3rd at 13:15 GMT (08:15 Eastern Time). There are still no official consensus estimates for this data but official Non-Farm Payrolls figures were expected at 115k new jobs created. The ADP release actually came out at 40k, a surprise negative number given that Payrolls were expected to show an increase in jobs. This sparked a feeling of pessimism towards Fridays news. However this was not reflected by immediate price action. Poor ADP figures (and the expectation that there will be poor Payrolls figures to follow) can be seen as Dollar negative, but this was not enough to halt the Dollars technically based rally against the majors going into Friday.
On the morning of Friday the 5th many traders inboxes were filled with newsletter and news service headlines such as Traders Braced For Poor Non-Farm Payrolls Data After Negative ADP Figures. Whether these headlines correctly encapsulated market sentiment or served to influence it remains to be seen but the reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls number would suggest that traders were pleasantly surprised. Non-Farm Employment Change came in at +167K, beating analyst expectations of 115K and contradicting the ADP figure released earlier in the week.

The price action seen on January 5th at the time of the Payrolls report is not enough on its own to suggest that the majority of traders are using the ADP figure for any Payrolls predictions. Due to the fact that the NFP came out better than expected, there were no nasty revisions to previous months data and the unemployment rate figure came out exactly as expected it was inevitable that there would be some significant Dollar buying. However, the insertion of ADP figures into the newsletter of market forecasters and news providers proves that the data is being taken more seriously and this trend will gather steam in the months to come. Traders will want to monitor the ADP employment change closely to determine whether there is indeed a positively correlating relationship with NFPs. At present it would seem that this relationship is weak at best but that is hardly surprising given the volatile nature of Non-Farm employment data and the relative infancy of ADPs data.

David Thorpe is a senior contributor for http://www.passion-trading.munbuns.com a free educational resource centre for traders and investors. The site has a dedicated forex trading and currency trading portal and its goal is to stimulate the minds of its users, enabling them to achieve a greater understanding the forex market, thus helping them to become more profitable.